Results of a new national poll carried out by UPI/CVOTER were circulated. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from September 12 to September 18 among 1203 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on August 30 Clinton received 51.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.