PPIC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 10 to July 19 among 1056 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.6%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.