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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.8% for Clinton, and 49.2% for Trump. In comparison, on September 21 Trump was still predicted to gain 49.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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