FOX News released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20 among 734 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.0%. Relative to his numbers in the FOX News poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.8 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.