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Ohio: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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