The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 48.7% of the vote.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often achieved similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.