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Ohio: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 48.7% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often achieved similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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