The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.7% of the vote.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.