Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.7% of the vote.

In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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