The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 50.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.