Results of a new poll carried out by FOX News were announced. The poll asked respondents from Nevada for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
FOX News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 18 to September 20 among 704 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada sees Trump at 51.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX News poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.