NBC/WSJ released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC/WSJ poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants indicated that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from September 16 to September 19 with 922 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 44.7% was gained by Clinton in the NBC/WSJ poll on August 3, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.4%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.