Results of a new poll administered by Monmouth were distributed. The poll asked respondents from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 with 400 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, the PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.