Results of a new poll carried out by Monmouth were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Florida for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often gained similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 16 to September 19, among a random sample of 400 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.