Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% plan to give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on September 14 Clinton obtained only 53.7%, while Trump obtained 46.3%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.