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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


The combined PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently in the lead by 50.4%.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.6% of the vote.

The expectation polls forecast of 51.8% for the Democratic candidate is rather low relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 50.8% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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