OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.