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Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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