Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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