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Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 29.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 66.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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