Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. In the latest Emerson poll on April 11 Clinton received only 54.6%, while Trump received 45.5%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.