DeSart model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 50.9% of the vote.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 48.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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