DeSart model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 50.9% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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