Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
According to the results, both candidates can draw on equal levels of support, each with 39.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 19 among 1111 participants. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share. To compare: Only 49.4% was obtained by Clinton in the Reuters poll on August 29, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.4 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.