California: 25 points lead for Clinton in new KABC/SurveyUSA poll

KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 57.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between September 8 and September 11. The sample size was 678 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 61.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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