538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.9% for Clinton, and 49.1% for Trump. In comparison, on September 20 Trump was still predicted to collect 49.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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