Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 47.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.