Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 5 to September 7, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. Relative to his numbers in the Suffolk University poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 1.9 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.