ElonElon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
ElonElon poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16, among a random sample of 644 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 50.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the ElonElon poll Trump's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.