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North Carolina: Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Elon*Elon* poll

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ElonElon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

ElonElon poll results
43

Clinton

44

Trump

According to the results, 43.0% of respondents intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16, among a random sample of 644 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 50.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the ElonElon poll Trump's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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