Civitas (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, both candidates have equal levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between September 11 and September 12. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 50.0% of the two-party vote.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.1% and Trump 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is significant.