Results of a new poll administered by Civitas (R) were published. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
The results show that real estate developer Donald Trump and former New York Senator Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 12 among 600 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share. An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 50.0% of the two-party vote.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.2% and Trump 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.