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North Carolina: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Elon*Elon* poll

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Results of a new poll administered by ElonElon were released. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

ElonElon poll results
43

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from September 12 to September 16 among 644 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 50.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the ElonElon poll Trump's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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