Results of a new poll administered by ElonElon were released. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
ElonElon poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 12 to September 16 among 644 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 50.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the ElonElon poll Trump's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.