North Carolina: 4 points lead for Clinton in new CBS News/YouGov poll
CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 30 to September 2, among a random sample of 1088 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 50.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 2.3 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.