New York: Clinton holds huge lead in Siena poll
By Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 60.1%. Compared to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.
