Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15 among 600 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. To compare: Only 62.6% was gained by Clinton in the Siena poll on March 3, for Trump this number was 37.4%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 60.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New York. In comparison to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.