Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 27 and August 29. The sample size was 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.