NBC/SurveyMonkey released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was in the field between September 12 and September 18. The sample size was 13230 likely voters. The error margin is +/-0.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump. On August 28 Clinton received 53.3% in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.