Maryland: New PPP (D) poll shows Clinton with 33 points lead
By PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who replied, 61.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.
