MPRC (D)MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 15 and September 17. The sample size was 835 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maine. In comparison to her numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.