NBC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 18 with 1332 participants. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump. In the latest NBC News poll on August 28 Clinton obtained only 46.7%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.