KABC/SurveyUSA poll in California: Trump behind by 25 points

KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 57.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11. A total of 678 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.8 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Clinton can currently count on 61.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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