The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.