The Issues and Leaders model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.6%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results vs. other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.