FieldField published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FieldField poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% intend to cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 13 among 1426 likely voters.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 60.2% for Clinton and 39.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 61.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FieldField poll.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote is 1.1 points above her polling numbers.