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DeSart model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 46.4% for Clinton, and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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