The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 46.4% for Clinton, and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.