SienaSiena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
SienaSiena poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 11 and September 15. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-5.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 60.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New York. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the SienaSiena poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.0% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.