OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.