Results of a new national poll administered by NBC News were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 5 to September 11, among a random sample of 1622 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.