Field published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Field poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 13 with 1426 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 60.2% for Clinton and 39.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 61.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Field poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.