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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.1%. In comparison, on September 19, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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