PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 30.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% indicated that they would cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1. A total of 1201 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-2.8 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.