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Washington: New Elway poll shows Trump trailing by 19 points


Results of a new poll administered by Elway were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Elway poll results




The results show that 43.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's prediction is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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