Results of a new poll administered by Elway were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's prediction is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.